Replica of Sputnik 1
The first artificial earth sattelite
Launched by the Soviet Union on Oct. 4, 1957
In 1902, Charles Holland Duell, the former United States Commissioner of Patents (from 1897 to 1901) stated: "In my opinion, all previous advances in the various lines of invention will appear totally insignificant when compared with those which the present century will witness. I almost wish that I might live my life over again to see the wonders which are at the threshold."
More than 100 years later, I believe those same sentiments apply to the 21st century. However, given all the advances in technology that took place in the past century, it is difficult to foresee just how the coming century can surpass the pace of the last century technologically. When Charles Holland Duell wrote those words more than a century ago, the Wright Brothers had not yet made their first successful flight, but their invention of the airplane was being used by the military by the time of World War I just 15 years later. Horses were still the principal means of local transportation in the United States in 1902. In 1901, Henry Ford designed and built a racing car, and won his first race. At that time there were numerous companies making automobiles, but they were primarily toys for the rich. It wasn't until 1908 that Henry Ford introduced the Model T, the automobile that revolutionized transportation. For several years following 1908, Ford continually improved the mass production techniques to build them such that the price kept coming down every year until 1920. By 1920, almost every family in the United States could afford to own a Model T. Thus Ford not only revolutionized transportation, but he also revolutionized manufacturing.
Commercial radio would not appear until 1920. Airline travel became fairly common in the 1930's. Television became available to consumers in the late 1940's. Jet airline travel became commercially available in the 1950's. Computers the size of a room became available in the 1940's and software that was useful for business was developed during the 1950's. Credit cards became available in the 1950's and became more ubiquitous in the 1960's. Sputnik, the first artificial satellite to orbit the earth was launched in 1957. By 1969, the first human beings traveled to the moon and returned safely to the earth.
However, I believe the words of Charles Holland Duell quoted above will apply to the 21st century just as much as they applied to the 20th.
This blog will be devoted to speculation and discussion of what technological changes will happen in the next 100 years, and what effect they will have on the people on planet earth. In order to make some intelligent speculation and prognostication on what the future holds, we will sometimes have to discuss history, economics, philosophy and perhaps politics in addition to technology. After all, you can't understand where you are going unless you first understand where you have been and what trends are currently in motion. Fasten your seat-belts and come on along for the ride!
Commercial radio would not appear until 1920. Airline travel became fairly common in the 1930's. Television became available to consumers in the late 1940's. Jet airline travel became commercially available in the 1950's. Computers the size of a room became available in the 1940's and software that was useful for business was developed during the 1950's. Credit cards became available in the 1950's and became more ubiquitous in the 1960's. Sputnik, the first artificial satellite to orbit the earth was launched in 1957. By 1969, the first human beings traveled to the moon and returned safely to the earth.
In 1904, John Ambrose Fleming developed the "Fleming valve", or diode vacuum tube, with which he was able to detect radio waves. In 1907 Lee De Forest invented the triode vacuum tube which was the first electronic amplifier. This marked the beginning of the electronic revolution of the 20th century. These vacuum tubes dominated electronics during the first half of the century, but they had some drawbacks. They were fairly fragile devices that consumed a lot of power and generated quite a bit of heat.
In 1947, the transistor was invented at AT&T's Bell Laboratories by John Bardeen, Walter Brattain, and William Shockley. By 1960, small devices like transistor radios became widely available. This semi-conductor technology expanded into integrated circuits, and by the mid-1970's integrated circuit technology had developed to the point where chips with a component density high enough to put a computer central processing unit onto a single chip. This made the small desktop computer possible.
In 1947, the transistor was invented at AT&T's Bell Laboratories by John Bardeen, Walter Brattain, and William Shockley. By 1960, small devices like transistor radios became widely available. This semi-conductor technology expanded into integrated circuits, and by the mid-1970's integrated circuit technology had developed to the point where chips with a component density high enough to put a computer central processing unit onto a single chip. This made the small desktop computer possible.
During the 1960's the Unix operating system, developed by AT&T's Bell Laboratories, became widely used by science, manufacturing and academia, along with the C programming language, invented by Dennis Ritchie at Bell. IBM's proprietary mainframe operating system was used primarily for business applications. During the 1960's and beyond, the IBM mainframes were programmed primarily with the COBOL programming language, developed by a committee of researchers inspired by the work of "Amazing Grace" Hopper, an early pioneer in computer science. (Grace Hopper was also a Rear Admiral in the U.S. Navy.)
By the mid 1970's, computers small enough to sit on a desk and inexpensive enough to be purchased by the average consumer became available thanks to the Apple I for hobbyists and the Apple II for the ordinary consumer. Very quickly thereafter,VisiCalc, the first spreadsheet program, became available, putting a powerful financial analysis tool in the hands of any Apple computer owner for a very reasonable price. IBM followed with the IBM PC to compete with Apple. The early 1980's saw the introduction of the first portable computer about the size of a sewing machine, the Osborne 1. By this time, some powerful software had been developed for small computers for word processing, spreadsheets, and procedural programming languages. Unlike any other computer in its time, the Osborne I came bundled with some fairly expensive software (WordStar word processor, SuperCalc spreadsheet, and Basic programming interpreter.) Software for other computers up to that time cost extra.
The 1980's saw spirited competition between Apple (founded by Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak), Microsoft (founded by Bill Gates and Paul Allen), IBM, and numerous companies making IBM clones. Apple made the greatest inroads with creative artists and educational institutions, while the IBM and its clones, along with the Microsoft operating system made greater inroads in the business community. By the end of the decade, the internet became available and the use and development of internet applications grew substantially throughout the 1990's.
In 1983, Richard Stallman started the Gnu project to develop a free Unix-like operating system. This marked the beginning of the free software movement which has been developing some of the best software available to this day, created by programmers all over the world, all of it free. It wasn't until 1991, when Linus Torvald created the Linux kernel, that a very robust, free Unix-like operating system could be created from the kernel combined with other software from the free software movement. Since then Linux operating systems, in a variety of flavors, have been developing and improving every year.
In 1983, Richard Stallman started the Gnu project to develop a free Unix-like operating system. This marked the beginning of the free software movement which has been developing some of the best software available to this day, created by programmers all over the world, all of it free. It wasn't until 1991, when Linus Torvald created the Linux kernel, that a very robust, free Unix-like operating system could be created from the kernel combined with other software from the free software movement. Since then Linux operating systems, in a variety of flavors, have been developing and improving every year.
The 1990's saw rapid growth and development of the laptop computer, allowing people to carry a computer around as easily as carrying a book. In software, the internet, and both free and commercial software developed at an accelerating pace. By the end of the 1990's, commercial uses for the internet were developing rapidly. One of the best examples of this early use is Amazon.com which revolutionized the book market and largely made local book stores obsolete.
Given that whirlwind tour of the twentieth century, one could be tempted to recall a couple of lines that appeared in "Punch" magazine in 1899:
Given that whirlwind tour of the twentieth century, one could be tempted to recall a couple of lines that appeared in "Punch" magazine in 1899:
genius: "Isn't there a clerk who can examine patents?"
boy: "Quite unnecessary sir. Everything that can be invented has been invented."
However, I believe the words of Charles Holland Duell quoted above will apply to the 21st century just as much as they applied to the 20th.
This blog will be devoted to speculation and discussion of what technological changes will happen in the next 100 years, and what effect they will have on the people on planet earth. In order to make some intelligent speculation and prognostication on what the future holds, we will sometimes have to discuss history, economics, philosophy and perhaps politics in addition to technology. After all, you can't understand where you are going unless you first understand where you have been and what trends are currently in motion. Fasten your seat-belts and come on along for the ride!
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